TOKYO – (ACN Newswire) – A group of consultants at Azabu Insights Inc., a strategic consulting company in Azabu Juban Tokyo, have been analyzing data to understand the correlation between air temperature and spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19).
Last week we made the case that coronavirus
seems to be spreading more in colder countries than in warmer countries and
that there might be some respite for the Northern Hemisphere countries if we
can make it to the warmer part of spring without numbers jumping up too
aggressively.
This weekend we analyzed more data, more
carefully, in two geographic models. First, we analyzed the number of cases in
each of Japan’s forty-seven prefectures (akin to States in the US). Second, we
looked at countries and their mean monthly temperatures. Lastly, we looked at
velocity of growth.
Japan Cases Overrepresented in Colder
Prefectures
Japan is interesting to look at. Despite having
only 126 million people living in 377,900 square kilometers (about the size of
Montana), it spreads North and South from latitudes in line with Maine and
Florida. The temperature dispersion is, not surprisingly, significant. Okinawa,
which has about the same latitude as Miami, Florida, had an average February
temperature of 16 degrees celsius (61 fahrenheit), whereas Sapporo, which has a
latitude similar to Portland, Maine, had an average temperature of minus 4.2
degree celsius (24.4 fahrenheit).
In the below chart we included all of the
prefectures of Japan, sorting them with the most Coronavirus infections at the
top and going all the way down to zero infections at the bottom. An analysis of
the prefectures below shows a number of interesting insights. First off we see
that all of the areas with significant infection counts are considered either
cold or very cold in February. Okinawa, as mentioned, is a warmer prefecture
and had only three cases despite being one of the areas with many Chinese
tourists.
We color coded the average temperatures across
prefectures for every month of the year (the average of low and high
temperature) into five categories, as below. The next insight is that most of
the prefectures will need to wait until April or May to reach the February
temperatures of Okinawa; temperatures will remain high through October.
1. Outbreak in Japanese Prefectures, Mapped
Against Average Temperature Celsius
http://www.acnnewswire.com/topimg/Low_Azabu20200310-1.jpg
International Outbreak vs Temperature: 94-98% of
Cases in Cold Regions
We next analyzed the international outbreak vs.
temperature. Again, some interesting insights come through. First off we
noticed that fourteen of the top fifteen countries were all “very
cold” or “cold” in February. One country, Spain, was classified
as “middle” temperature; it has the seventh most cases (as of March
8, 2020). Spain had an average temperature of eight degrees in February which,
while certainly not hot, was somewhat warmer than the average of three degrees
across the top fifteen countries.
Further, we noted that there are currently
fifty-one countries with at least ten cases. Of the total number of cases
22,967 or roughly 93 percent were in “cold” or “very cold”
regions, excluding China. This number would be 103,655 or roughly 98 percent of
cases including China. There were 880 cases in warm and middle regions and 753
in hot regions.
2. Total Infection Cases, Countries with greater
than ten Covid-19 cases (excl. China)
http://www.acnnewswire.com/topimg/Low_Azabu20200310-2.jpg
3. Total Infection Cases, Countries with greater
than ten Covid-19 cases (incl. China)
http://www.acnnewswire.com/topimg/Low_Azabu20200310-3.jpg
Looking at it on a country basis, just over half
of the top fifty-one countries were in cold or very cold regions. Again, we
caution not to read too much into this, since the aggregate numbers are skewed
so high to cold regions. Cases do exist in many warm countries, but there are
less of them and they seem to be spreading less quickly.
Further drilling down we see that Singapore and
Hong Kong had 138 and 108 cases respectively, a large number amongst hot
countries. These countries have a huge number of Chinese visitors but had
surprisingly low outbreak rates. They are also interesting because they are
very much “indoor” cities, where many people spend their time in
large air conditioned buildings and indoor pedestrian walkways and shopping
malls. From our discussions with people in Hong Kong and Singapore and from
media reports we know that both cities have worked very aggressively to combat
the outbreak. It is unclear whether their success is due to their hard work in
combating it or due the temperature support or a combination.
4. Percentage of Top 51 Countries with Outbreaks
http://www.acnnewswire.com/topimg/Low_Azabu20200310-4.jpg
Upcoming Winter in the Southern Hemisphere
One concern that we identified was, as the
northern hemisphere warms in May and June, that the Southern Hemisphere would
be entering their colder winter months and, as such, potentially see an increase
in outbreaks and the speed of spread of coronavirus.
On closer examination however we see that
Southern Hemisphere winters are milder than many places in the Northern
Hemisphere. For example, Hobart is Australia’s coldest city and has an average
temperature of 8.2 degrees celsius in July which would be classified as
“middle” temperature. Similarly Bloemfontein in South Africa (7.2
degrees) and Santiago in Chile (8.2 degrees) are mild. Note, some smaller
cities in the Southern and mountainous areas of South America, have colder
temperatures, such as Punta Arenas in Chile with a July temperature of 1.5
degrees.
Overall we are hopeful that the milder Southern
Hemisphere winters will result in slower spread and less outbreaks through the
middle of 2020.
Long Summers in Many Countries
We see that many countries are clustered closer
to the equator. This includes South East Asia, much of South Asia, the Middle
East, the majority of Africa and much of South and Central america. Of the 51
countries where we have seen at least 10 cases, 23 of them have 6 months or
more classified as “hot”, with 13 of these countries “hot”
all year round. Following the assertion that coronavirus spread is slower in
hotter environments, this high number of hot months bodes well for a slowing of
the spread of the virus over the ensuing months.
Conversely, we hold concerns for countries with
very short summer seasons, particularly in Northern Europe. Global financial
center London in the UK for example, only has 2 hot months for the year as does
Amsterdam in the Netherlands. While Russia may see less inflow and outflow of
people than London it is an outlier with every month of the year either cold or
very cold. The potential for outbreaks and continued spread in these countries
remains and should be continue to be monitored closely.
Velocity of Spread
A final insight from the data comes from an
analysis of the velocity of growth in warm versus cold regions. We found, when
analyzing the ten regions we had previously looked at, that the rate of growth
of the cases between March 3 and March 8th was faster in the colder regions
(average growth of 185%) than in the warmer regions (average growth of 50%).
This is to say, while Singapore had a fair number of cases early, their growth
from March 3rd to 8th has been slow (only 25%). Cases for countries, such as
Washington State (467%) France (397%), Iran (288%), and Italy (189%) all grew
very quickly, during the same period. Amongst warm regions we had reviewed, one
concern was Malaysia, which had cases jump 158%.
5. Increase in cases by region
http://www.acnnewswire.com/topimg/Low_Azabu20200310-5.jpg
Within Japan we also looked at velocity and
found a major jump in Japan’s second largest city, Osaka. Osaka is another cold
populous city (8.8 million people) with lots of train travel and public
gatherings. Numbers jumped to fifty-five cases from eight cases, a growth of
412%. Local media is reporting that this is connected to a cluster around live
music events. Japan has also faced a shortage of masks in the past week, with
many convenience stores receiving shipments of only two or three masks at a
time. Rough counts on the street seem to show less people wearing masks than a
week ago, when they were more available.
Osaka is Japan’s second largest city and is home
to a number of very famous listed companies, which may be further affected by
the outbreak. These include: Takashimaya (TSE1: 8233), Capcom (TSE1: 9697),
Teijin (TSE1: 3401), Panasonic (TSE1: 6752), Daikin Industries (TSE1: 6367).
Refer to the table below to view the cases and
average temperatures in the fifty-one countries with ten or more cases. Looking
at the pattern of temperature rise across the most affected countries, we see
that most will need to wait at least until April or May (and some as late as
June) to be classified as “warm” or “hot”. There is then a
respite until about October when temperatures will drop and be very supportive
of the virus spread again.
6. Case Counts and Monthly Temperatures for 51
Countries with greater than ten Covid-19 cases
http://www.acnnewswire.com/topimg/Low_Azabu20200310-6.jpg
Conclusions
As with our previous article, we conclude that
Covid-19 can spread in warm regions but seems to spread much more quickly in
colder regions. We hope that countries and regions around the world will
aggressively work to keep the virus at bay until the summer months and hope
that the warm temperatures will support further containment.
Comments on our analysis are welcome at the
email below.
About Azabu Insights
Azabu Insights is a boutique strategic
consulting company based in Azabu Juban, Tokyo, Japan. Our teams work
collaboratively with clients to build strategies that lead to positive change.
Our multilingual team members have top tier academic backgrounds and deep
industry experience that we leverage to provide first class, fully engaged,
strategic consulting. Core specializations include life sciences, finance,
electronics, automotive, aerospace and other industries. For more information
contact: info@azabuinsights.com.
